When the good news of butadiene supply was digested in February, the contradiction between supply and demand fundamentals was transformed, and the drag effect of demand in the face of the market gradually emerged, leading to the gradual weakening of the market in March.
In March, due to the impact of the "two sessions", some latex manufacturers in the north of the device parking, coupled with the pipeline supply of the downstream manufacturers of raw material storage tank maintenance, the main export manufacturers in the northeast of the inventory gradually increased, while the downstream synthetic rubber market fell, manufacturers profit upside down increased, all led to butadiene market decline. Beginning in mid-to-late March, the market news appeared relatively chaotic. On the one hand, based on the increase in the amount of pipe transport and mutual supply of manufacturers, the inventory pressure has been alleviated, and some northern businesses are cautious about the market. On the other hand, in view of the weak performance of synthetic rubber and the relatively high inventory of tank farms in East China, there is no lack of cautious bearish atmosphere in the market.
Butadiene market, go left? To the right? Can the maintenance in the second quarter be pulled? In the chaotic market news, Longzhong information takes you to sort out the fundamentals.
First, maintenance - double-edged sword
I believe everyone is concerned that in the second quarter, butadiene enterprise maintenance is relatively concentrated. However, this small series reminds you to pay attention to: maintenance not only includes butadiene device maintenance, but also includes downstream synthetic rubber device maintenance.
Second quarter butadiene - synthetic rubber maintenance schedule (unit: 10,000 tons)
According to the statistics of Longzhong Information, the total impact of butadiene device maintenance in the second quarter is about 34,800 tons, and the maintenance of three general synthetic rubber devices affects the demand for butadiene by about 44,400 tons.
In addition, the market news said that Shandong Huayu and Shandong Witt butadiene device is expected to restart in April, the manufacturer said that the current cracked carbon four market high, the cost pressure is large, after the late raw materials down in place, butadiene device will have a restart plan, combined with Shenhuaning coal and Sierbon petrochemical plant restart operation, butadiene manufacturers overall supply shows an increasing trend.
Second, terminal demand - the market can not bear the heavy
Because the market is generally too optimistic about the March market before the Spring Festival, the upstream and downstream of the entire industrial chain are actively covering positions, and the weak downward trend of the market after the festival has increased the inventory pressure of finished products and raw materials of synthetic rubber manufacturers and tire companies, and even the situation of "rubber manufacturers selling raw materials". Demand has become the main factor restricting the market.
From the perspective of the synthetic rubber industry, first of all, in addition to the previously mentioned device maintenance, a styrene butadiene rubber manufacturer in Zhejiang has now reduced its load to about 70%, and it is not ruled out that it is possible to continue to reduce the negative in the later period, and the fundamental reason for the manufacturer's device to reduce the negative is that the cost pressure is huge, and the situation of "flour is more expensive than bread" makes the downstream factories suffer. In terms of the tire industry and the downstream automobile industry of the terminal, it is also difficult to see a significant improvement as a whole, according to Longzhong Information, some small and medium-sized tire companies have relatively high raw material inventories, and a small wave of relatively concentrated raw material restocking dates are about the end of March and April.
The supply and demand of the commodity market can not always maintain a complete balance, and the change of price is constantly promoting the market to repair each supply and demand imbalance. "Just need, save always", short-term supply boost and just need to support, butadiene market is limited to consolidation. However, "no terminal demand support is a paper tiger", in the synthetic rubber profit upside down, poor terminal demand drag, short-term butadiene market has no obvious upward momentum. At the same time as this small edition knocked down this text, CNPC took the lead in lowering the price of its styrene butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton, and the downstream market has become the current butadiene market "can not bear the weight".