Ethylene glycol in the first quarter from high all the way down, is the current bottom shock? Let me have a look.

Figure 1 Ethylene glycol prices in the first quarter of 2018

  At present, the price decline in the domestic ethylene glycol market continues, with a decline of 100-200 yuan/ton. Stock index futures are weaker, there is no warming power in the week, market participants buy gas pressure, the market center of gravity continues to fall. Ethylene glycol itself supply and demand imbalance is the basis of the market to open down, the downstream delivery suspension led to an increase in inventory, the current ethylene glycol port inventory continues to climb to maintain a high level, coupled with the follow-up to the port concentrated pressure market mentality, near the weekend the main port daily shipments are OK, the fundamental changes are subtle, as of now, the East China market spot transaction center in the vicinity of 7000 yuan/ton. Ethylene glycol market in the depth of the fall after the market confidence is still not high, short-term low adjustment waiting for a good boost.

In February (Spring Festival month), at the beginning of the month, the market price continued to fall in January prices, traders are bearish, downstream factories have stopped, terminal weaving has begun to holiday, downstream demand has weakened, and port inventory has accumulated. On the periphery, the atmosphere of commodities has deteriorated, and ethylene glycol is under pressure. And the ethylene glycol devices stopped and repaired in the early stage have resumed driving, and the operating rate has been adjusted back to near 71.5% this week. Entering the second week, the price stalemate, the external aspect, the weak performance of stock index futures, the ethylene glycol atmosphere has weakened performance. On the supply side, the domestic operating rate has increased to near 81%, and inventory has accumulated. Downstream, approaching the Spring Festival holiday, downstream polyester has been shut down, demand has weakened, terminal weaving has begun to holiday, workers have been basically on leave. In terms of capital, traders are not willing to operate strongly, and have successively withdrawn and reduced operations. The fourth week of the third week, the Spring Festival holiday market was stable and excessive. After the return of the festival, the overall atmosphere of the domestic ethylene glycol market is strong, the market price is stable in the trend of rising, although the port inventory is expected to increase, but the market did not appear too drastic a reaction, and the price is supported by the main merchants to buy still shows a strong upward trend, the spot transaction center of the East China market was once near 8000 yuan/ton, some factories bought a small amount, Compared with East China, South China and Fujian market transactions are heard to be weak, and local businesses have not fully entered the market, so there is little atmosphere for transactions.

 Overall, the stock index futures have weakened, ethylene glycol electronic trading has fallen significantly, market participants are under pressure to buy gas, and the market center of gravity continues to fall. Up to now, the ethylene glycol market is still not high after the deep fall in market confidence, short-term low adjustment waiting for a good boost.